Thursday, January 13, 2005

According to Environics CPC up in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, down in Ontario

Environics has its most recent polling data available on the web now. The Canadian numbers aren't terribly facinating as they seem to be about the same as election day. The Liberals are clocking in at 37% of the vote, the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 20%, the Bloc Quebecois at 12%.

Regionally, there is a significant upswing in support for the Conservative Party in Atlantic Canada environics has us up 8% to 34% of the vote in the region. We may be seeing Conservative support in Quebec rise into double digits in Quebec as we are up 5% to 12%, which is still not satisfying but it is a start. We're losing/gaining a little everywhere else but 1 - 3 % point changes where the margin of error is 4 to 8% are difficult to read anything into.

However, the two increases I mentioned were both above the margin of error reported by Environics and seem to confirm two things - the Maclean's story about Conservative story about an increase in support for Conservatives in Quebec has at some substance, and that the Atlantic provinces are begining to become angery with the Liberals, I'm going to casually predict alot of that increase in support is coming from Newfoundland.


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