Saturday, December 03, 2005

My election prediction

My cautiously optomistic prediction will be a reasonably strong Conservative Minority.
Conservatives: 126Liberals: 98NDP: 26Bloc Quebecois: 58

I'm basing this prediction on Stephen managing to find 22 seats in Ontario that he can turn our way, expecting the party to come our +2 seast (Cadman is dead, Kieth Martin hopefully dies his overdue political death) in BC, +2 in Alberta (Go home Anne), losing one seat to the NDP in Saskatchewan - I don't think we can expect to win both the races we won by a whisker, Manitoba no change, Quebec..also known as the Tory dying ground nil here, Atlantic Canada - I'm optomistically expecting us to be +4 across the 4 provinces there. I think we can win Efford's seat in Newfoundland, pick up one in New Brunswich lacking the health care dynamic which was going on there provincially last election, gain one to two seats in Nova Scotia and if we're lucky one in PEI.

From the last election that would amount to 37 fewer Liberals. Four more Bloc Quebecois members, as well as 7 more members of the NDP. Most importantly 27 more Conservatives than were elected in the last election. This seems doable to me, provided that the CPC or the NDP doesn't completely run themselves into a wall.


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