Sunday, April 24, 2005

Election Buzz - Good time to be a Tory?

I think the most apt metaphor I've heard yet is that an election, like a war often starts because once the mechanisms to begin it have been put in place their very momentum drives towards the logical conclusion. Once the trains are schedualed it seems a bit late to be going back.

Mps are talking to their constitutents right now - at least the Conservative ones about whether they would like an election or not. But really, does anyone believe the question isn't whether "would you like an election now?" but "would you be terribly upset if we had an election now?" Its a slaes pitch as much as it is a consultation.

I'm quite certain that if Martin tries to make an issue out of the timing of the election, he'll find the impracticality of having an election in late December/early January thrown in his face, the litigous cloud hanging over the Gomery commission and the fact all the witnesses will be heard and Canadians can come to their own conclusions as a result. On the whole, I don't think "we didn't need to have an election yet" is not a very good election issue. I think it also becomes a whore election issue when its held in contrast to "there was systematic corruption and theft within the Liberal Party".

And really, politics tends to be a bloodsport. Hence if your opponent is down you kick him - repeatedly. Right now the Liberal party is suffering from disunity and low moral. If you speak to its active supporters alot of them are pondering sitting the election out, their dishearted - they don't want to go get yelled at while knocking on doors. You hear alot of people who casually describe their political leanings as liberal say - but "not that kind of liberal" While in parliament, in some appearances Paul Martin is looking 80 years old. While if you watch question period many liberal Mps seems to have all the joy and vigour to them of a convict on death row. Where it a military engagement you'd think they were about to break and run seeking to save themselves.

On the other hand, has Stephen Harper ever appeared more confident? Has he ever appeared more in control of the situation? He's even showed some passion in decrying the activies of the government. His personal popularity is growing in the polls, regarding both his desirablity as a prime minister and his trustworthyness. While his part now cruises around 35-36% in the polls which constitutes a strong minority and begins to knock on the door to a majority depending on how the chips fall. Harper is looking Prime Ministerial,and he's been quite adept at inocculating himself at many of the extremist changes leveled at him.

Ipsos Reid in their polling for Canwest is indicating the Paul Martin's televised remix of his litany of excuses just may backfire.

As part of the survey, 377 of the 2,000 interviews were conducted on the evening of Martin's nationally televised address. The poll found that of those interviewed that night, there was a "spike" in support for the Conservatives. Bricker cautioned that because of that smaller one-night sample size, the results can only be considered "in a directional nature."

While Team Martin while it still expected to cruise to power announced a number of "star candidates". The Globe and Mail reports today that this time around its "Team Tory" or "Harper's Heroes" if you will that are announcing a slick starting line up.

Last week there was already the announcement that former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon was planning to run in the Quebec riding of Pontiac. This is a riding the Conservatives have polled strongly in before, with a high profile candidate I can only expect we'll be very competetive there. Given that the riding is partially encompassing Gatineau I sincerely doubt it will go to the seperatists, which I think gives us a fairly even shot at it.

While Mike Harris' old front bench seems to be lining up to make the shift to federal politics. Tony Clement is set to take another run at things, since Ontario seems to be comming around. I'm glad to hear this, I genuinely felt bad for Tony. After he lost his provincial seat, the federal leadership campaign, and then the federal seat it really seemed that an articulate and intellegent guy like him deserved better. Good to see he's going to get another kick at the can.

John Baird had already announced his intent to transition to federal politics. While yesterday he was formally joined by Jim Flaherty - a former Harris cabinet minister and two time provincial leadership contender. Flaherty has cabinet minister material written all over him. He may even have some coat tails in Ontario.

Elsie Wayne aka Halifax's Raging Granny is pondering comming out of retirement to continue her distinguished tenure of public service. A Mulroneyite Mp Barry Turner is feeling nostalgic about his brief stint as a parliamentarian and pondering a come back.

Heck Blair Lancaster, a former Miss Canada is intending to run for us. This will only continue the trend if she should win of Conservatives Mps being able to claim "we're prettier than you."

Former Global news anchor Peter Kent is likely to run in Toronto for us. While across the country Russ Courtnal who has a bit of experience playing right wing is seriously weighing considering a move into politics.

Now seriously who wouldn't like to see Russ Courtnal as Minister for Ameteur Sport? How many ministers could we send out to sports functions were people would get their autographs?

Reynolds is indicating that there are going to be more prominent candiates comming forwards. While the Liberals so I've heard are simply going to keep the same candidate of record, unless they drop out. Anyone with a Conservative inclination is now smelling blood in the air and throwing their hat in the ring. While whom have the Liberals announced?

I rather expect we'll see a number of Liberal Mps decide "they'd like to spend more time with their families" or are suffering from "nagging health problems" and various other reasons to take early retirement as opposed to venturing into the next electoral campaign.

It's a good time to be a Tory.


At 6:28 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good time to be a Tory might mean bad times for Tories if candidates are chosen for "star" power instead of conviction, ethics and genuine conservative ideals.


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